What is measured
Forecast air temperature comes from MET Norway Locationforecast ↗. Actual temperature comes from public AviationWeather.gov METAR observations ↗. We compare 1, 24, 48 and 72-hour lead times.
Prediction, then measurement
We keep the old forecast and check what happened
Every six hours, SunCooled saves temperature predictions for UK reference stations. When the time arrives, the prediction is matched with an observed airport temperature. This page reports the errors, including misses.
| Lead time | Matched observations | Mean absolute error | Warm or cool bias | Within 2°C |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 hours | 3877 | 1°C | -0.2°C | 92% |
| 24 hours | 3820 | 1°C | -0.3°C | 89% |
| 48 hours | 3789 | 1.1°C | -0.3°C | 86% |
| 72 hours | 3765 | 1.2°C | -0.3°C | 83% |
How to read it
Mean absolute error is the average size of the miss. Bias is forecast minus observed, so a positive value means the forecast ran warm. Airport conditions can differ from a town centre or your room, and this validates temperature rather than the solar approximation.
Reference stations
London, EGLLManchester, EGCCBirmingham, EGBBBristol, EGGDEdinburgh, EGPHBelfast, EGACCardiff, EGFFAberdeen, EGPDGlasgow, EGPFSouthampton, EGHINewcastle, EGNTEast of England, EGSS
Collector last ran: 06/11/2026, 06:00:55